Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
