Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from US administration generated strong feelings, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
